This week’s events in global finance were rendered meaningless by the British referendum to leave the European Union. British voters’ decision to exit the EU sent shock-waves throughout financial markets, causing commodities, indices and stocks to plunge, and striking a blow to the value of the pound and the euro as well. Final implications for UK-EU relations will continue to develop as politicians enter a two-year negotiation process. In terms of coffee specific news, the sun is shining again in Brazil and no damage was reported after the recent dip in temperatures. Colombian truckers are engaged in a nationwide strike, restricting the outflow of coffee while weather remains favorable. On a positive note, Colombian authorities and FARC guerrillas signed a cease fire this week, ending 50 years of armed conflict, and our Director of Roasting Jen Apodaca gave birth to a beautiful baby today. Happy Friday.
C market pricing started the week by dipping out of the recent range under heavy speculative selling, meandering with little direction or intent before finally collapsing under the weight of today’s Brexit volatility. Despite fundamental indication of an abundance of coffee, C market pricing showed minimal interest in trekking lower and revisiting the $1.20s. Today’s six-cent decline could be interpreted as the C market’s solidarity with the rest of the financial trading sector but is limited in its implications for a general turn in the market. The daily chart below indicates a sharp downturn in line with today’s markets, though well within the range of trading of the last two weeks and still in the upper half of this month’s movement.
The weekly chart indicates that this week was an “inside week”, meaning that this week’s high was lower than last week’s high and this week’s low was higher than last week’s low. Basically, this week’s range was smaller and within last week’s range; note that the red bar representing this week is smaller and within the green bar for last week. An “inside day/week” is an indicator of uncertainty since neither buyers nor sellers could define the session; however an inside session at the end of a rally like the C market has had in the last three weeks could also belie a lack of further upward momentum. In the short-term, C pricing will need to overcome $1.4685 to retake the upside campaign, or break $1.3490 to explore the depths.